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Peace process, redux

What will Manmohan Singh’s legacy be?

In the U.S., the President spends his second term contemplating his legacy and how history and America will remember  him.  In India, it appears that our Prime Minister, who may or may not bow out before the next general elections, wants to leave behind a legacy of peace between India and Pakistan.

It is a noble vision, and one that has preoccupied many a past Indian Prime Minister. But it is also unsustainable given that Pakistan’s Military Jihadi Complex (MJC) remains structurally adversarial towards India.  This is a reality that India has had to live with for over sixty years, which no amount of cricket, Bollywood, mangoes or poetry has been able to obscure.

Even as Nirupama Rao prepares to travel to Pakistan next week as a precursor to S.M. Krishna’s July trip, there are several indications that Pakistan’s MJC plans to step up attacks in India.  Prior to the Pune attacks, the JuD held public rallies (اردو) in Lahore and Muzzafarabad, which were attended by the whos-who of the jihadi umbrella, including Lt. Gen. Hamid Gul, Syed Salahuddin and Abdul Rehman Makki.  JuD held another public rally on June 14 in Lahore, where Indian, Israeli and American flags were uniquely treated to a “chappal ki pooja.”

At the rally, Hafiz Saeed accused Israel of trying to convert Pakistan into a “barren land by constructing dams on its rivers.”  What is or isn’t part of madaaris curriculum may be debatable, but it should be pretty apparent now that  elementary geography doesn’t feature in any meaningful way. The absurdity of Hafiz Saeed’s accusation however, illustrates how symptomatic Kashmir was (and the “issue” of water now is) to the root cause of Pakistan’s unwillingness to live in peace with India.

And Matt Waldman’s report ( PDF) , while doing a decent job in highlighting the ISI’s relationship with terror groups, is found wanting in its policy recommendation, at least where India is concerned.  Mr. Waldman falls for the same tired argument of a “regional peace process,” and U.S. involvement in resolving Kashmir.  As The Filter Coffee has blogged before, the argument is fallacious.

The UPA’s vision for peace with Pakistan can last only as long as the lull before the next terror attack in India.  Pakistan’s unwillingness to abjure terror combined with the fact that civilian government neither crafts nor implements foreign policy in Pakistan essentially means that nothing has changed.  When will the Indian government realize that merely talking to Pakistan can’t be a  tenable solution for peace in the subcontinent?  If the UPA hopes to secure India, then its efforts are best directed towards strengthening the country’s internal security, while ensuring a capacity to challenge terror infrastructure where it stands.

You cannot seek peace with an entity when that entity’s idea of peace involves your dismemberment.  Instead of suffering grandiose visions of Indo-Pakistan peace, Mr. Manmohan Singh would do well to focus on leaving behind an India that is capable of defending itself at home and deterring the designs of those plotting to hurt India from abroad.  Indeed, it will be a legacy worthy of a man who, as a Cabinet Minister, laid the foundation for India’s meteoric economic rise.

http://chellaney.spaces.live.com/Blog/cns!4913C7C8A2EA4A30!1057.entry
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Attack on Sri Lankan Cricket Team in Lahore

News is just trickling in that Sri Lanka’s cricketers, who are on tour in Pakistan, were attacked in Lahore. The cricketers were en route to Lahore’s Gaddafi Stadium where they were to face the Pakistani cricket team on day three of the second test match.  Preliminary reports indicate that several cricketers, including heir apparent Kumara Sangakkara, were injured during the attack.

It is always a bit of a challenge to glean any information from channels like NDTV or Times Now during an ongoing incident, because their “journalists” and “news reporters” neither know how to construct a coherent sentence in English, nor have gumption to present a half decent analysis of the said incident.  The Times of India is now running a news item that screams: “Terrorists” behind attack on Lanka cricketers. Really?  Did you piece that together yourself, Einstein?  I’m sure the art of stating the bleeding obvious isn’t mastered overnight.

Images flashed on the TV screen showed terrorists brandishing what appeared to be rocket launchers and AK-47s.  There is no word on whether the terrorists were captured, killed, or if they have even been identified.   The real issue that should continue to concern anyone following Pakistan is that the breakdown of law and order is spreading eastward at an astonishing rate.  Despite assurances of security cover to visiting teams, this attack reinstates the notion to this blogger that the civilian government (whether federal or state) is in no position whatsoever to be making such guarantees.   The political machinations of the civilian and military leadership of Pakistan will try to lump this in with the Mumbai attack to reinforce to the West that they are victims of the same terrorism that India and the rest of the world are subject to.

It is not beyond doubt that Punjabi terror groups such as Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) or Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) could be responsible for the attack.  The establishment may also choose to quickly transfer blame to the “bad” Taliban (as opposed to Maulana Fazlullah’s “good” Taliban) or to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT).  Who orchestrated the attack is not as important as recognizing the obvious malaise that is devouring the legitamacy of the Pakistani state.  I have previously made the case that Pakistan today consists essentially only of Punjab and Sindh.  Various sections of NWFP and Balochistan have already been bequeathed/abandoned/surrendered.  Despite every assurance of security, a dastardly attack was perpetrated against high profile, soft targets in the heart of a major Pakistani city that lies 45 kilometers from the International Border (IB) with India.  How safe are our borders?

PS — Raman’s Q&A on the Lahore attack (March 4, 2009)

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