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The LoC Incident

Manmohan Singh must meet with Nawaz Sharif in New York.

Even as we begin to fully understand the circumstances that led to the killing of five Indian jawans by Pakistani troops last week, we are informed of yet another Indian soldier succumbing to injuries today from a Pakistani attack on August 5 in J&K’s Samba district.

In New Delhi, Dr. Manmohan Singh has maintained a steely silence (as is his wont) on both incidents.  His defense minister made a dog’s meal of the incident in Parliament for which he was so thoroughly pilloried by the opposition that he had to recant his statement the very next day.  Meanwhile, opposition parties are engaged in hyperbole and political theatrics with May 2014 in mind.  What should have been dealt with at more tactical military level has now morphed into something larger, and unnecessarily so.  There are now even ludicrous demands that India recall its high commissioner from Islamabad.

As mentioned in the previous blogpost, LoC attacks by Pakistan are nothing new.  Cross-border attacks have continued to increased year-on-year over the past five years, from 31 in 2008 to 108 in 2012.  These sorts of attacks are both routine and expected and should have been dealt with as such.  The Indian army has a demonstrable track record of being able to deal with these sorts of transgressions.  Had the prime minister condemned the attack and issued a timely statement to the effect that the army was on alert to respond to Pakistan’s provocations, he would have ensured that the incident would have been dealt with through appropriate channels.  And as long as the Indian army’s mandate to respond in kind to Pakistan’s aggressions along the LoC was not curtailed, an appropriate punitive response would have assuredly been delivered to Pakistan.

Instead, the UPA has bungled badly in its dealing of what should have been a tactical military issue and allowed it to get commingled with the larger, political issue of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism.  The prime minister’s over-enthusiastic commitment to a so-called “peace process” with Pakistan (which possibly explains his silence on the killing of Indian troops and the defense minister’s statements) has left him with yet another political mess on his hands.  The Pakistanis, themselves, are always happy to oblige in any endeavor that publicizes and promotes visibility of India-Pakistan issues on the world stage, so a latent upping of the ante with Pakistan is of no real value to India.  It should be of no surprise to us, then, that Pakistan is behaving the way it is.

The BJP now wants the PM not to meet with Nawaz Sharif in New York on the sidelines of the UNGA in September, but it must realize that its position is untenable.  If India wants to see progress on the 26/11 trial in Pakistan and those responsible for it brought to book, is cutting off communication with a man who has, ostensibly, promised to work towards improving ties with India a wise course of action?  The question for India isn’t so much whether or not it must talk to Pakistan, but what it should be talking to Pakistan about.  On 26/11, some measure of justice was delivered to the victims and their families with the sentencing and hanging of Ajmal Kasab in India, and by the sentencing of David Headley and Tahawwur Rana in the U.S.

Yet, Lashkar-e-Taiba’s leaders and their state-supported backers who financed and supported the attacks in Mumbai continue to evade justice in Pakistan.  It is no secret that Nawaz Sharif’s ability to deliver on promises has always been questionable.  The last time he attempted to defy the Pakistani army, he was lucky to find himself with a one-way ticket to Jeddah. But India’s options with regard to the 26/11 trial in Pakistan are few and far between.

Therefore, it is appropriate that Dr. Manmohan Singh meet Nawaz Sharif in New York.  His message to his Pakistani counterpart should be clear: deliver on the 26/11 trial and we’ll have something to talk about.  No progress on the 26/11 trial means no composite dialog, no discussions on J&K and no visit to Pakistan.  How Nawaz Sharif elects to go about to the process to bring the 26/11 trial in Pakistan to a satisfactory conclusion is up to him.  Potentially, there are fissures between Zaki ur-Rehman Lakhvi, the LeT operational chief who is already in “custody,” and Hafiz Saeed that could be exploited to deliver a result that India will appreciate.

Nawaz Sharif says he wants to improve ties with India.  Let’s see if he can translate intent into action.

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Where is the Difa-e-Pakistan Council?

Why the silence?

It’s been over half a year since we’ve heard from that wonderful consortium of crazy people, the Difa-e-Pakistan Council (DPC).  There haven’t been any news reports of large rallies of the sort held by the DPC last year.  Even when tensions with India mounted in January this year as a result of the killing of Indian troops along the LoC, there was no agitation of the sort one had come to expect from the DPC.

There are some reports that the DPC continues to be active and operating in stealth mode.  We are told that the U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan, Richard Olsen met with DPC’s leader Sami ul-Haq this past month and requested his assistance in DC’s ongoing attempts to negotiate with the Taliban.  The DPC may be working behind the scenes, but the drive to mobilize public sentiment in favor of hardline causes seems to have fizzled out.

Mujahid Hussain’s piece in the Viewpoint potentially offers some clues as to why:

According to well placed reports, it has been decided at a high-level meeting that the Defence of Pakistan Council [Difa-e-Pakistan Council] would not be allowed to hold rallies in major cities of Pakistan as the leaders of the Defence of Pakistan Council are adding to the country’s external problems.

This meeting was held at the Presidency. A high-ranking military representative was also present. However, the military representative remained non-committal during the meeting.Jamat-ud-Dawa, responsible for arranging all the rallies and meetings of the Defence of Pakistan Council, and Jamat’s head, Hafiz Saeed, are known for their extremist views. Given this background, Pakistan is facing disturbing situation at the external front.

However, the powers that be do not want to render the Defence of Pakistan Council ineffective even if the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already warned that the Defence of Pakistan Council is harming Pakistan’s interests at external front.

Most likely, a terrified civil government will beg the GHQ and request the military leadership to help rein in the Defence of Pakistan Council. [The Viewpoint]

The DPC’s members themselves have been anything but inconspicuous in the media.  Gen. Hamid Gul lauded Pakistan’s sheltering of Osama bin Laden for almost a decade, Hafiz Saeed, who carries a bounty on his head, used ill-conceived statements by Satish Verma to claim innocence on 26/11 and Maulana Muhammad Ludhianvi is spearheading a pogrom against Pakistan’s minorities

But it appears that the burner has has been reduced from hot to simmer.  The utility of the groups that constitute the DPC hasn’t been forgotten by the powers-that-be in Rawalpindi; yet there appears to be some sort of attempt to check the hitherto unbridled freedom with which the DPC operated.  It is an old game that the generals at GHQ think they have mastered.  The operative word there being “think.”

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U.S. hearings on the Lashkar-e-Taiba

Convergence of perceptions augurs well for Indo-US counter-terrorism cooperation.

The U.S. House of Representatives’ Committee on Homeland Security held a hearing on June 12 on “Protecting the Homeland Against Mumbai-Style Attacks and the Threat from Lashkar-e-Taiba.“  As a precursor to the hearing, Peter King, chairman of the Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence, remarked that “The LeT is a terror proxy of Pakistan’s [ISI], which provides LeT with a safe haven and funding to train and prepare for terrorist attacks…”  Elected representatives of the U.S. would have hesitated in making such admissions even a decade ago, for fear of embarrassing Pakistan.

The LeT ceased to be an India-specific terror outfit after 26/11; its deliberate targeting of U.S., Western and Israeli citizens during the attacks in Mumbai meant that its orientation was now beyond targets only in India.  Thus, the convergence of common threat perceptions augurs well for Indo-U.S. cooperation on counter-terrorism and on the threats posed by the Lashkar-e-Taiba.  Salient excerpts from the USHOR testimonials follow.

Stephen Tankel on the LeT training Westerners:

LeT has long had a policy of training Westerners. The majority of them are members of the Pakistani and Kashmir diasporas in the U.K., but the group has been training Americans since 2000.

The first Americans known to have trained with LeT were from Virginia and were part of a coterie of would-be jihadists that ultimately became known as the Virginia Jihad Network. Sajid Mir, the commander in charge of overseas operatives, arranged for several of them to provide assistance to a British LeT operative who traveled to the U.S. on multiple occasions from 2002-2003 to procure military gear for the group.

Precisely what LeT or elements within it planned to do with this information is unknown, though they clearly were interested in both surveillance and expanding the group’s networks in the U.S. In 2005, two men from Atlanta Georgia with ties to the ‘Toronto 18’ as well as to a British Pakistani
who acted as a talent spotter for LeT identified possible targets for a terrorist attack in the U.S.

LeT has trained others living in America since then, none more famous than Daood Gilani, who took the name David Coleman Headley in 2006 to help facilitate his reconnaissance trips in Mumbai and elsewhere for the group. He joined LeT in February 2002, participating in the Daura-e-Suffa that month. In August 2002 he went through the Daura-e-Aama and then in April 2003 the Daura-e-Khasa, LeT’s three-month guerrilla warfare training program….

Given the benefits Headley provided to the group, it is reasonable to assume LeT may have increased its efforts to recruit and train other Westerners or to find ways for Pakistani members to acquire citizenship or residency in Western countries. [USHOR]

Christine Fair on the re-branding of the LeT as a charitable organization, the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD), and continued support from the Pakistani MJC:

To facilitate LeT’s pro-state message countering that of the various Deobandi organizations operating in Pakistan and against Pakistanis (e.g. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and the Pakistani Taliban), Pakistan’s Ministry of Information and the armed force’s Interservices Public Relations appear to direct Pakistani and international media to cover the ostensible relief efforts of JuD and its other alias, Falah Insaniat Foundation (e.g. during Pakistan’s 2005 earthquake and the 2010 monsoon-related flood). The media coverage of this humanitarian work seemed far in excess of the actual relief activities conducted. Subsequent research has shown that the organization did not provide the relief that the various media proclaimed. In essence, this media coverage handed the organization a public relations boon they did not deserve.

In survey work that my colleagues and I have conducted in Pakistan, we have found that the various state and non-state efforts to rebrand LeT as JuD in Pakistan have been successful. During survey pretesting in Pakistan in 2011, we found that Pakistani respondents viewed the two organizations as being quite distinct and engaging in different activities with the latter being seen more often as providing public services.

As I argued in 2011, this strategy is important. By fostering public support for the organization at home, the Pakistani state can resist pressure from the United States and others to work against the organization. Under these varied guises, LeT/JuD can continue to recruit, raise funds and support its message of jihad against the “external kuffar” such as the Indians, Americans, Israelis and so forth. The continued official investment in the organization and expanding public presence suggests that the Pakistani state is ever more dependent upon this proxy for both domestic and foreign policy requirements. [USHOR]

And finally, Jonah Blank:

On the issue of dealing with a Mumbai-style attack, one thing we can do is take a lesson from the citizens of both Mumbai and Boston. The reason the attacks in these cities were so jarring was that they stripped away the illusion of safety. A few weeks ago, however, the citizens of Boston confronted an unspeakable evil– not with panic but with quiet, rock-solid resolve. That’s what the citizens of Mumbai did in 2008– indeed, at leas t half a dozen times in recent years. Unfortunately, that is what other citizens, in the U.S. as well as elsewhere, will be called on to do in the future.

The Mumbai attack had special meaning for me: I used to live in Mumbai, just a few blocks from the site of most of the attacks. I used to buy American newspapers from the Taj bookshop, stop by the Leopold Cafe for a cold beer, watch a movie at the Metro Cinema, take trains from the terminal that locals still call by its colonial-era initials of “VT.”

One of the victims of the Mumbai attack was a friend of mine. He was man without whom I wouldn’t have been able to conduct my ethnographic fieldwork. He was an elderly Muslim cleric, easily identifiable as such by his white beard and skullcap– but the gunmen still shot him at close range. [USHOR]

These admissions in earnest would have been unthinkable even a decade ago in a Congressional hearing.  The U.S. may be withdrawing from Afghanistan in 2014, but its threat perceptions are rapidly converging with India’s.  This is important at a time when the Pakistani establishment appears to be pitting its frankensteins against each other.

 

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Urdunama: Jihad-e-Hind

As representatives of every political hue deliver speeches to seek the support of the Pakistani voter in the nation’s general elections scheduled for May, Lashkar-e-Tayiba’s ameer, Hafiz Saeed was out delivering firebrand speeches of his own as well.  Addressing the Jihad-e-Hind Conference on April 9, 2013 at LeT’s Muridke headquarters in Punjab, Hafiz Saeed declared a war on India and warned of attacks inside Indian territory.

He also blamed Pervez Musharraf for supporting the U.S.’s war in Afghanistan and acquiescing to drone attacks along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.  This is the second time since February 2013 that Hafiz Saeed has publicly called for jihad against India, while taking comfort over having “vanquished the retreating forces of America and its allies.” Excerpts of his speech, as published by Nawa-i-Waqt, follow:

Pervez Musharraf must answer for his involvement in the Lal Masjid attacks and U.S. drone operations that have resulted in the deaths of 7 lakh Afghan and 30 lakh residents of the border areas.  One can only pity Musharraf given his current state of affairs, but Pakistan is yet to learn its lessons from his misplaced policies.  Even today in Islamabad, there are people like Musharraf who, instead criticizing the U.S., India and Israel, denounce the mujahideen for being involved in “terrorism” in Pakistan.

The U.S., India and Israel are playing a dangerous game in Balochistan.  They aim to capture Gwadar so that they can control strategic routes to the Gulf and West Asia.  India must be made to pay the price for its continued occupation of Kashmir.  Pakistan is yet to avenge the losses of East Pakistan, Hyderabad (Deccan) and Junagadh.  Pakistan must also avenge the attacks on the Samjhauta Express and Babri Masjid.

Our leaders in Islamabad plan to grant India MFN status, while the Indians are conspiring with Sindh nationalists to create a Sindhudesh to further dismember Pakistan.  India’s media does a good job in covering up India’s many sins, while Pakistan’s media has done nothing to expose them.  India’s list of crimes is very long indeed.  We have incontrovertible proof of the atrocities India has committed over the years.

There are some misguided people in Lahore who have been fooled into believing that the people of Indian Punjab and Pakistani Punjab share a similar culture.  These people must think long and hard on whether this is indeed true.  We build friendships with friends, not with enemies.  Is India really our friend?  It has illegally occupied our lands.  It dams our rivers to destroy our agriculture and turn Pakistan into an arid desert.

Let India pay attention: “jihad-e-Hind” — a war against India — will be launched.  This war will be contested inside Indian territory and no one can save it from annihilation.  Even the RSS and BJP cannot save India from its fate.  The mujahideen have taken on and defeated the Americans and their allies.  India’s fate will be no different.  [نوائے وقت]

Little wonder, then, that there are now jihad-e-Hind billboards in Pakistan’s cities.

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